Will the Broncos make the Super Bowl? Benjamin Hochman and Joan Niesen both seem to think so. (Joe Amon, The Denver Post)
Guess what! The NFL playoffs are a mere day away, despite the fact that the Broncos have to wait another week to finally take the field against the Colts, Chiefs or Chargers.
In that festive playoff spirit, the esteemed Mr. Benjamin Hochman and I have decided to engage in a playoff picks competition to see who’s better at predicting the most unpredictable of things. Here’s how it works: Every Friday of the playoffs, we will post our picks for the upcoming weekend. Each correctly picked winner will earn 1 point, and if either of us correctly picks the margin of victory, that’s worth 5 points. We also each put down early Super Bowl picks. Getting one Super Bowl team right earns 2 points, getting both earns 4, and getting both plus the winner correct earns 8. We’ll also re-pick the Super Bowl beforehand, with the same scoring system as the earlier rounds.
So follow along to find out which one of us is a bigger ignoramus. My vote’s on Hochman. I’ll post a scorecard every Monday to tally our results.
SUPER BOWL PICKS:
Niesen: Seahawks defeat Broncos
Here’s the thing: I’m worried about the Broncos defense. Like, really worried. I know it played well in Weeks 16 and 17, but that was against the Texans and Raiders, and so I would really struggle to put much, if any, stock into those performances. Conversely, though, I have no faith in the rest of the AFC. If my picks go as I predict for the Wild Card weekend, the Patriots would get the Chiefs in the divisional round, and I think there’s a decent chance that Tom Brady and company — the Broncos’ biggest threat — could lose then. Really, I think the Broncos have a pretty decent path to the Super Bowl, but once they get there, the Seahawks — or the 49ers, whom I think have a good shot of a berth — could be a big-time threat.
Hochman: Broncos defeat Seahawks
Sure, Xs and Os and matchups and schemes and Peyton’s brain and all that stuff will be the real reason Denver wins the Super Bowl.
But for now, I’ll point to the narrative. For Peyton Manning to solidify himself as the greatest QB of all-time — the first QB to win a SB with two different teams (and he also played in another and won a buncha MVPs) — he’ll have had do it under crazy circumstances.
First, they lost to Ravens last year, when it looked like he’d win a Lombardi his first year in Denver. Then they lost Elvis on that crazy fax mixup. Two (two!) key execs got DUIs. The best defensive player was suspended for six games, then later is hurt and out for the season. Manning’s trusted left tackle, Pro Bowler Ryan Clady, is hurt and out for the year. Hall of Famer Champ Bailey is hurt for most of the year. Peyton had to play a game against his brother, then play another game returning to Indianapolis for the first time since coming to Denver. The coach underwent heart surgery and misses games. Peyton had to fight off the Chiefs, who suddenly (inexplicably) became major players in the division. And he went 13-3, broke the NFL record for TDs and passing yards, while winning Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year. And now, to win the Super Bowl, he’ll have to likely beat his longtime foe, Tom Brady, and win a Super Bowl in a cold weather atmosphere.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, SATURDAY, 2:35 p.m.
Niesen: Chiefs by 6
I just don’t think the Colts are very good, despite beating the Broncos in October, and I think the Chiefs are good. They’ll get to Andrew Luck, and Kansas City’s Cinderella story will advance.
Hochman: Colts by 3
Peyton versus the Colts to go to the AFC Title Game? Can you believe it?! Actually, I think the Colts are the best matchup of the three choices for Denver. (I know, I know, Denver beat Kansas City twice, but Kansas City has been playing good football lately.)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES, SATURDAY, 6:10 p.m.
Niesen: Eagles by 3
Because I grew up liking the Saints, and my family likes the Saints, and Nick Foles is like some football Napoleon Dynamite god, the Saints will lose. I have a cold. I’m feeling pessimistic.
Hochman: Saints by 3
Besides its Super Bowl win, the Saints have never won a playoff game on the road, and they’ve been terrible on the road this season. So of course they’ll win this game on the road, because the NFL playoffs are wacky (and it’ll counter the karma from when the Saints lost on the road to a sub-.500 Seahawks team in the playoffs a few years ago).
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS, SUNDAY, 11:05 a.m.
Niesen: Chargers by 5
Andy Dalton threw four picks last week. Four. Enough said. I know the Bengals still won, but the Chargers have been playing good football lately, and I can only imagine they’d take advantage of such a turnover-fest.
Hochman: Bengals by 3
Rivers can’t win down by the river.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS, SUNDAY, 2:40 p.m.
Niesen: 49ers by 7
It’s going to be approximately -1,000 degrees in Green Bay Sunday, which is going to make this a wonky matchup, but no matter what, I think the 49ers are terrifying.
Hochman: 49ers by 13
They’re baaaaaack.
Don’t agree? Post your picks in comments below so you can brag about (or try to deny) them later.
